As many times as the Oscars suck, and how often they get things wrong, I still love watching them. I love years, like this one, where there is a film I can really root for. It's funny being in film school - it seems like most people would have elitist taste, but when talking about who has seen what, I find that more people have seen the Friday the 13th remake than The Wrestler.
The past three years, I've hosted Oscar parties at my house with the girls. I have some lovely memories of them, and it makes me sad that I have to change the company this year. And that I won't have my mom's salsa, or get to watch Gallacher go into a diabetic coma from eating a whole bowl of Dove chocolate.
I haven't see all of the films nominated, but most of them, so here is my incomplete list of Oscar predictions:
BEST PICTURE-
Will Win: Slumdog Millonaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Definitely my favorite film of the year, Slumdog has won every guild award, a feat no other film has ever accomplished. It would be a mega-upset for something like Milk to upstage it, but I think it's a pretty safe bet.
BEST ACTOR-
Will Win: Sean Penn
Should Win: Mickey Rourke
This category could go either way I think. Sean Penn is very good in Milk, and the film is more topical than The Wrestler, but Mickey Rourke is just so much more haunting and heartbreaking. Plus, he's Marv.
BEST ACTRESS-
Will Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Kate Winslet
She was nominated for the wrong film, however. I thought The Reader was very a mediocre, by the book let's-continue-to-feel-bad-about-the-Holocaust film, whereas Revolutionary Road sucked me in, taking the malaise of the 1950s and putting a spin on it. Meryl Streep could upset though, and maybe even Anne Hathaway.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR-
Will Win: Heath Ledger
Should Win: Heath Ledger
The Dark Knight should have been nominated for Best Picture over The Reader, but it'll get its dues with this award, which is a lock. I have nothing to say about Ledger that hasn't been already said.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS-
Will Win: Penelope Cruz
Should Win: Marisa Tomei
I feel a little guilty predicting Cruz for this because I haven't seen or plan on seeing Vicky Christina Barcelona. Taraji P. Henson is probably the best part of Benjamin Button, but Tomei just make the washed up stripper in The Wrestler feel so real, so damaged.
BEST DIRECTOR-
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: Danny Boyle
Boyle has put together a very solid collection of films since debuting with Shallow Grave, and he deserves to be recognized. As much as I like David Fincher, Benjamin Button was just very blah. Milk is a really good film, I just don't know that Gus Van Sant is the reason.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY-
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Wall-E or In Bruges
Again, I think the thing about Milk that elevates it really is the ensemble performance. As far as originality, I guess this has to go to Wall-E, but In Bruges put a really fantastic spin on the overdone hit-man story.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY-
Will Win: Slumdog
Should Win: Slumdog
Can you tell I like Slumdog a little bit?
CINEMATOGRAPHY-
Will Win: Slumdog or The Dark Knight
Should Win: The Dark Knight
While I think Slumdog is better photographed, the technicality of the lighting set-ups and cameras that had to be used to get the grand scale shots in The Dark Knight shows a better command of the medium. Also, I think Revolutionary Road should have been up.
EDITING-
Will Win: Slumdog
Should Win: Slumdog
We had just talked about editing in Aesthetics of Cinema when I saw Slumdog, and honestly, it was the most striking visual from the film. The three concurrent story lines are weaved together seamlessly, which is the very purpose of continuity editing.
ANIMATED FEATURE-
Will Win: Wall-E
Should Win: Wall-E
I've reconsidered Wall-E after a second viewing, which made me like it a lot more. The humor is way more clever than I noticed the first time. And honestly, Bolt? Yeah...
I won't get into all of the smaller categories, but I have my favorites.
And Gallacher and Ashley Ann, know that I'll miss sitting on my couch making fun of who wore what with you two.
2 comments:
It's not gonna be quite the same =(
But YAY Slumdog! And Wall-E! I'm glad you warmed up to him.
I think Slumdog is a tad overrated. It's fun but quite cliche and predictable. I don't find it Best Picture material.
The Best Picture in that group is Frost/Nixon and I hope it wins not only because it is deserving but it will piss off all kinds of freaks and geeks. Which I love.
Frozen River should and will win Best Original Screenplay...beautiful film.
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